The Maoist move on Tuesday to quit government did not come as a surprise. But it did come as a disappointment. It reflected growing tension between the Maoists and the seven parties alliance, strains within the Maoists between the moderate leadership and hardliners and the fear of the ex-guerrillas that they would be sidelined in November elections.

The Maoist chairman is finding it difficult to be both: Pushpa Kamal Dahal a statesman from a mainstream political party and Prachanda the leader of a rebel group who want to finish the revolution. Prime Minister Girija Koirala and Dahal failed to agree on the Maoists' two main demands: declaration of a republic before elections and holding the polls through full proportional representation. But the real bottom line is that the Maoists fear they won't fare all that well in polls and want to either postpone the polls or scuttle it altogether. In this, they have common purpose with the royalists.

By quitting the government, Dahal has taken a clever risk and tried to kill three birds with one stone: outflank ethnic groups that have recently become even more radical than his party, appeased hardliners within his own party, and tried to play the role of the opposition in the run-up to November. The Maoists will try to project themselves as a force for change in contrast to the traditional parties, which are seen to be status quoists and reap an anti-incumbency effect. All this now seems to be an elaborate ruse to postpone elections to next year at which time the Maoists probably feel they will be better prepared. But even this is doubtful.

Dahal may understand it, but hotheads in his party don't: the main reason they don't have support from the people is because of the continued highhandedness of the YCL & Co. A dogmatic party that doesn't care about public opinion and believes its own slogans will never do well in free voting.

The hope now is on behind-the-scenes negotiations to forge a compromise so that the first meeting of the constituent assembly will declare Nepal a republic.

There is still the likelihood of a rapprochement because neither Dahal nor Koirala wants to be seen as a spoiler of the peace process, and both have more serious issues like the madhes that they need to grapple with. Besides, both agree on most things and the only debate is about sequencing: whether we should go republic before or after elections.

Nepal's peace process is not in jeopardy, and the Maoists are not about to go back to war. But it shows just how difficult it is for Dahal to straddle his dual avatar of revolutionary and statesman.