The possibility of an army takeover amid this fluid political situation needs to be carefully examined. The possibility of army doing the king's bidding is almost negligible at present. The brass doesn't wish to be isolated from the world by trying to save a king and his kingdom. In the past the army has tarnished its image more to protect the interest of the king rather than pursuing its own institutional ambitions. I don't think it will repeat the same mistake.
There are officers who believe in democratising the army and adapting with the changing times. The Americans have coopted moderate leftists by funding their NGOs. It still wants to neutralise the Maoists, but wouldn't want to use the army for the job.

India has unprecedented influence over the parties. Nepali academics like us don't imagine meeting the Indian Prime Minister as soon as we land in Delhi, but Indian academics like SD Muni have easy access to our prime minister despite his ill-health. Furthermore Muni goes to the reporters' club and declares India's full support for Nepal. Who's Muni? This gives us a sense of how much influence India has in Nepal. And perhaps it indicates India doesn't need the army to extend its influence.

The real danger comes from the parties. Koirala is using the army in ways that remind us of Gyanendra. This is dangerous. The defense ministry is not active and the national Security Council hasn't been formed so Koirala continues to deal with army one-on-one. The army has the government's support, and most political parties lead by the NC are keen to maintain the status quo.

The Maoists are pushing for the security sector reform before the election. YCL anarchy is unabated. Combatants in the camps have a similar style. There is speculation the army might step in given the political climate and the deteriorating situation in tarai. But that won't happen without the consent of the political parties and foreign powers. It's not just the monarchy that is history on the world stage, so are military juntas. Except in areas where world powers have a strategic interest (Burma, Pakistan).

It is the political parties who deserve blame for the present uncertainty, not the army. The parties who came to power on the strength of the mass uprising have forgotten who is sovereign here. They are harbouring the illusion that they can continue to cling to power indefinitely.

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