Sher Bahadur Deuba spent his first week at Singha Durbar talking about talks, but he is not talking about what he has been talking about. He briefed King Gyanendra on Wednesday evening, he had a marathon meeting with the opposition UML's Madhav Kumar Nepal, and met almost every opposition leader worth a seat in parliament.
The prime minister's mission is peace, but thus far he seems to be going it alone. He made the rounds of politicos without aides. The topmost bureaucracy is still clueless about what is going on, and until Thursday the prime minister had not even appointed an adviser. Perhaps Deuba knows something we don't, and is simply keeping his cards close to the chest for the moment. Perhaps he is coordinating his activities closely with Narayanhiti. Perhaps he has a plan.
It is important to look beyond the initial contact that resulted in the ceasefire. Is Deuba not talking because he realises how distant peace really is? As prime minister he represents the state, not the person who could take easy potshots at Girija Prasad Koirala from the sidelines. Sooner or later, he will have to tell us how far apart he and Chairman Prachanda stand on core issues:
l Prachanda wants a new constitution, Deuba wants to keep the present one.
l Prachanda wants an interim government, Deuba can't do that under the existing constitution.
l Prachanda wants a Peoples' Republic of Nepal, Deuba is for a constitutional monarchy.
The prime minister finds himself squeezed between Prachanda, the new king, monarchists, leftists of different shades, centrists and rightists. The army's loyalty is no longer the wildcard-it has shown that it stands steadfastly behind the palace. The only thing Deuba can do is waffle. At a public meeting on Wednesday, Deuba did say that the constitution and constitutional monarchy were inviolate. However, he added: "Prachanda keeps his convictions, I keep mine and we will work together."
But how will that work? Something will have to give, and unless the prime minister is willing to sacrifice the system he represents, the Maoists will be forced to find their "safe landing" from among the options available. The government has begun to show good faith by releasing detained Maoists, it should not have a problem agreeing to many of the well-known 40-point demands, at least in theory.
The UML's Nepal, a critical player in the peace process, admits he is confused. He told us: "The government should tell us its bottom line and how flexible it can be. The Maoists must do the same." (See interview) Nepal wants the Maoists and the government to convince him they are not playing games.
For the moment, Deuba's truce with Prachanda holds. The police are breathing a sigh of relief: the Maoists have put off massacres. Even through the ceasefire, the Maoists have made it clear they are in no mood to change their ways-they've blown up abandoned police posts, and continued janakarbahi (\'people's actions'), and extortion. Some suspect the Maoists may even be using the truce to amass funds to arm themselves to face the army if talks fail. Says a prominent political analyst in Kathmandu: "If I were a Maoist, I would prepare to take on the army in the next round. I would be preparing, collecting money, buying automatic weapons."
In the meantime, though the Maoists also need a breather. It is lucky for both sides that Deuba has a direct line of communication, which was why he was able to call the dramatic ceasefire in just a few hours on 23 July. The Maoists concern for the short-term, and the government's show of good faith in releasing detained Maoists, mean that Prachanda now needs a very good reason to walk away from talks.
"They are under pressure to come to a settlement, if they fully believed violence would bring them to power, there would be no reason to even say they want to talk," says Prakash Sharan Mahat, who was in Deuba's team last year that recommended negotiations.
Deuba now needs to extend the truce while he puts together an action plan, agreeable to all-from King Gyanendra to all opposition parties, left and right, and his own "centrist" Nepali Congress. His ability to ensure that the Maoists remain willing to talk hinges on if and how he can get all the players to agree on the peace plan.
